Narrator: In 1987, as Vice President George H.W. Bush was gearing up for a presidential run, a close friend urged him to retreat and reflect on a fundamental question: what was his vision for the country? Bush’s exasperated response would haunt him for the rest of his political career. He dismissed the idea as "the vision thing." This small, off-the-cuff remark captured a deep paradox in leadership: while vision is universally hailed as a critical quality, it's often treated as an afterthought, a mystical concept that practical leaders don't have time for. Yet, as Bush’s later defeat to the vision-driven Bill Clinton suggests, a lack of vision can be a fatal flaw.

In his book, Anticipate: The Art of Leading by Looking Ahead, author Rob-Jan de Jong dismantles the myth that visionary capacity is an innate gift reserved for a select few. Instead, he argues it is a disciplined, learnable skill built on a foundation of imagination, foresight, and structured thinking, providing a practical roadmap for any leader looking to master "the vision thing."

Narrator: The book begins by challenging the common perception that vision is a mysterious quality that leaders either have or they don’t. De Jong argues that this belief creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, where leaders neglect to develop their visionary capacity because they feel they lack the natural talent. The reality is that vision is a competence that can be cultivated through deliberate practice.

This is demonstrated in a study on retail stores, which might seem like the last place to find grand, world-changing visions. Researchers Sooksan Kantabutra and Gayle Avery investigated whether a leader's vision had a tangible impact in shoe shops and boutiques. They interviewed employees to assess their leader's vision and then surveyed shoppers to gauge customer satisfaction. The results were clear: stores led by individuals with a compelling vision had more motivated employees who felt a stronger sense of direction. This, in turn, led to significantly higher levels of customer satisfaction and better business performance. The study shows that vision isn't just for tech gurus or political figures; it's a practical tool that creates real value by providing meaning and direction, even in everyday contexts.

Narrator: Before a leader can anticipate the future, they must first be able to imagine it. De Jong emphasizes that vision is less a product of spreadsheets and data analysis and more a product of the mind's ability to conceive of what does not yet exist. However, our imagination is often suppressed by mental frames, assumptions, and a psychological phenomenon known as cognitive dissonance—the discomfort we feel when holding contradictory beliefs.

A powerful example of breaking these frames comes from creativity guru Edward de Bono. A San Francisco restaurant owner, facing declining revenue, sought de Bono’s advice. After a tour, de Bono asked the owner what part of the restaurant he was most proud of. "The kitchen," the owner replied. De Bono’s radical suggestion was to get rid of it. The owner was shocked, as the kitchen is the heart of any restaurant. But de Bono pushed him to imagine the possibilities. Freed from the assumption that a restaurant must have a kitchen, the owner began brainstorming. He could double his seating, create a unique ambiance, and, most importantly, source food from the many excellent competing restaurants in his neighborhood. Six months later, his "kitchenless" restaurant was the hottest spot in town, offering the most diverse menu in the city. This story illustrates that visionary ideas often emerge not from adding something new, but from challenging and removing a core, unquestioned assumption.

Narrator: De Jong presents a simple yet powerful framework for developing visionary capacity, built on two independent skills. The first is "seeing things early"—the ability to detect faint signals of change on the horizon before they become obvious trends. The second is "connecting the dots"—the ability to synthesize these disparate signals into a coherent, compelling narrative about the future.

Leaders can be mapped onto a 2x2 matrix based on these skills, creating four archetypes. "Followers" are low on both dimensions, always reacting to the present. "Trend Hoppers" are good at seeing things early but fail to integrate them, jumping from one new idea to the next without a coherent strategy. "Historians" are skilled at connecting dots and creating narratives, but they do so using old information, making their visions a reflection of the past, not the future. The goal is to become a "Visionary," who excels at both seeing early signals and weaving them into a robust, forward-looking story. This framework transforms the abstract goal of "being visionary" into a targeted developmental journey focused on strengthening these two specific competencies.

Narrator: To master the skill of seeing things early, leaders must actively fight against thoughtlessness and expand the time between when a disruption appears and when it's too late to act. The book introduces a technique called "FuturePriming" to achieve this. It involves consciously priming the brain to notice early-warning signals by imagining concrete future events, or "FutureFacts."

For example, instead of discussing the abstract trend of "resource scarcity," a leader might propose a FutureFact: "By 2025, Saudi Arabia will cease exporting oil to meet its own domestic demand." This tangible, provocative statement forces a much deeper and more urgent conversation. It’s no longer a vague concept but a specific event with profound implications. This was demonstrated in a session with leaders from a global oil company. While they intellectually understood that oil was finite, the analyst's stark FutureFact jolted them into a more serious consideration of a post-oil world. By creating and discussing these imagined milestones, leaders train their brains to recognize the real-world signals that point toward that future, effectively allowing them to see what’s coming before their competitors do.

Narrator: While Steve Jobs famously said you can only connect the dots looking backward, visionary leaders must find a way to connect them looking forward. This is fraught with uncertainty and psychological traps like overconfidence and tunnel vision. The most effective tool for this is scenario planning, a method perfected by Pierre Wack at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s.

At the time, Shell, like its competitors, operated under the assumption that oil prices would remain stable and demand would grow predictably. Wack, however, saw faint signals that challenged this view: the U.S. was becoming a net oil importer, and oil-producing nations were beginning to coordinate. Instead of creating a single forecast, he developed multiple plausible stories about the future. One was the "official" view, but another was a "crisis scenario" where oil-producing nations would form a cartel and seize control of supply. When Shell's leadership engaged with this "unthinkable" scenario, they were mentally prepared. So, when the 1973 oil crisis hit, Shell was not caught by surprise. While competitors scrambled, Shell had already "created a memory of the future" and was able to adapt quickly, turning a crisis into a competitive advantage. This demonstrates that connecting the dots forward isn't about predicting the one true future, but about responsibly exploring multiple futures to build resilience and agility.

Narrator: A brilliant vision is useless if it remains locked in a leader's mind. The final step is to ignite followers by communicating that vision in a way that inspires action. This requires more than a well-crafted mission statement; it demands authenticity and masterful communication. The leader’s behavior must be a living embodiment of the vision.

Ingvar Kamprad, the founder of IKEA, built his company on the vision of making well-designed furniture accessible to everyone. This vision was inseparable from a core value of cost-consciousness. Kamprad didn't just talk about it; he lived it, famously flying economy class and taking the bus instead of taxis. His personal actions created a powerful, authentic culture where cost-consciousness was deeply ingrained, not just a slogan on a poster.

Furthermore, visionary communication relies on powerful language, metaphors, and stories that make the future tangible. When Steve Jobs recruited John Sculley from PepsiCo, he didn't offer a better salary. He posed a frame-breaking question: "Do you want to sell sugar water for the rest of your life, or do you want to come with me and change the world?" That single, powerful question reframed the entire decision, appealing to a deeper sense of purpose and igniting a vision that Sculley couldn't refuse.

Narrator: The central message of Anticipate is that visionary leadership is not an accident of birth but the result of a deliberate and disciplined process. It demystifies the "vision thing" by breaking it down into a set of learnable skills: nurturing imagination, seeing early signals, connecting the dots into coherent scenarios, and igniting followers through authentic communication. The book moves beyond abstract platitudes and offers a concrete framework for developing the foresight needed to navigate an uncertain future.

Ultimately, the most challenging idea the book leaves us with is the call to action. It’s easy to passively consume information about the future, but true visionary capacity is built by actively engaging with it. The real question is, are you content to be a spectator of the future, or will you do the work required to become its architect?