Narrator: On the morning of September 11th, 2001, FBI agent Robin Dreeke stood in his office near the World Trade Center as a plane struck the North Tower. In the chaos that followed, he witnessed unimaginable fear and heroism. He saw colleagues he’d known for years react in ways he never could have predicted. One agent, Lenny Hatton, ran into the collapsing towers to establish communications, sacrificing his life. In that moment of crisis, Dreeke was struck by a terrifying realization: he couldn't accurately predict what even his closest colleagues would do under pressure. This profound failure of prediction, he realized, was a universal human problem with life-or-death consequences. How can we build alliances, protect ourselves, and navigate a world of strangers if we can't reliably tell who is on our side?

This question became the driving force behind his life's work, culminating in the book The Six Signs of Predictability. Co-authored with Cameron Stauth, the book presents the system Dreeke developed as a behavioral analyst to move beyond gut feelings and intuition, offering a clear framework for identifying reliable people and spotting manipulators before they can do harm.

Narrator: The book's first major shift in thinking is to redefine trust itself. Most people associate trust with a person's moral character or inherent "goodness." Dreeke argues this is a dangerous mistake. Instead, he proposes a more pragmatic definition: trust is predictability. The core principle is that you can almost always predict people will act in their own best interests. This isn't a cynical view of humanity; it's a realistic one.

Therefore, the key to predicting someone's behavior is to understand what they perceive their best interests to be. A person isn't trustworthy because they are "good," but because their success is aligned with your success. When your goals are linked, their self-interest naturally motivates them to support you. This is why Dreeke states, "Trust is predictability, not morality." Relying on gut feelings or emotional assessments is no better than a coin toss; behavioral science studies show that people who lack all the facts make the correct decision only about half the time. By shifting the focus from subjective feelings to an objective analysis of interests, one can build a far more reliable foundation for any relationship.

Narrator: Building on the idea of aligned self-interest, the first two signs of predictability are Vesting and Longevity. Vesting is the belief that someone's success is directly tied to your own. When people are vested in you, they actively work to help you succeed. Longevity is the belief that your relationship will be a long-term one. When people expect to interact with you for years to come, they are far more likely to treat you well, knowing their actions will have future consequences.

Dreeke's experience with a Russian informant named Leo powerfully illustrates this. Initially, their relationship was tense and unproductive. Leo was a suspected double agent, and Dreeke's aggressive, confrontational approach failed completely. The breakthrough came when Dreeke learned Leo’s grandson, Viktor, was suffering from a serious medical condition. Instead of pressing for intelligence, Dreeke offered to help, using his resources to assist with Viktor's visa and medical care. In that moment, he became vested in Leo’s personal success. This single act transformed their relationship. Leo became a deeply loyal and valuable asset because Dreeke had proven that his well-being was also Dreeke's priority. This created a powerful, long-term bond built not on abstract morality, but on a tangible, shared interest in a positive outcome.

Narrator: While shared interests are crucial, they are meaningless if a person can't deliver on their promises. This brings us to the next two signs: Reliability and Actions. Reliability isn't just one quality; it's the combination of two distinct elements: competence and diligence. Competence is having the skill and knowledge to do something, while diligence is the consistent effort and work ethic to actually get it done. A person can be brilliant but lazy, or hardworking but inept. True reliability requires both.

The fourth sign, Actions, is perhaps the most straightforward: a person's patterns of behavior over time are the most accurate reflection of their character. Words can be misleading, but consistent actions reveal a person's true priorities and values. Dreeke provides a stark example from his time leading a drone task force. The team leader, George, was technologically brilliant—he had competence. But he was chronically disorganized, failed to follow through on tasks, and couldn't communicate effectively. He lacked diligence. Despite his intelligence, his actions consistently demonstrated his unreliability, and the task force floundered. This experience reinforces a simple but profound truth: you must judge people by what they do, not what they say they can do. Past behavior is the most reliable predictor of future behavior.

Narrator: The final two signs delve into the more subtle aspects of a person's character: Language and Stability. Language is a transparent window into a person's mindset. Trustworthy language is positive, empowering, and focused on the other person. It uses words like "we" and asks questions to understand another's perspective. Untrustworthy language, conversely, is often defensive, uses absolute terms like "always" or "never," and subtly seeks to control or diminish others. Dreeke encountered this with a corporate executive, "Mr. X," who used all the right buzzwords about teamwork and collaboration. However, his nonverbal cues and ultimate focus on manipulative sales scripts revealed his true, self-serving intentions.

The final sign, Emotional Stability, is arguably the most critical. An emotionally unstable person is unpredictable because their actions are driven by fear, insecurity, and impulse rather than rational thought. Dreeke calls this the "noisy mind." In contrast, the "quiet mind" is calm, rational, and able to see others clearly, fostering trust and effective collaboration. A young, insecure FBI agent named Linda was initially crippled by a "noisy mind," overwhelmed by a high-stakes case. By providing guidance and support, Dreeke helped her find her footing. As her emotional stability grew, so did her confidence and effectiveness, and she became a highly successful agent. This demonstrates that stability is the foundation upon which all other signs of predictability are built. A person who cannot manage their own emotions cannot be a reliable ally.

Narrator: The single most important takeaway from The Six Signs of Predictability is that assessing trustworthiness is not a mysterious gift, but a learnable skill. By shifting from relying on flawed intuition to a systematic process of observing objective behaviors, anyone can dramatically improve their ability to predict how others will act. The six signs—Vesting, Longevity, Reliability, Actions, Language, and Stability—provide a comprehensive toolkit for navigating the complexities of human relationships.

Ultimately, the book leaves us with a powerful challenge that turns its lens inward. While it’s a guide to sizing up others, its greatest value may lie in applying the six signs to ourselves. Are we the kind of person others can predict and trust? Do our actions align with our words? Are we vested in the success of those around us? The real path to building bulletproof alliances isn't just about finding the right people; it's about becoming one of them.