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The End of Average

11 min

How We Succeed in a World That Values Sameness

Introduction

Narrator: In the late 1940s, the United States Air Force faced a deadly and perplexing problem. Its pilots, among the most skilled in the world, were crashing state-of-the-art planes at an alarming rate in non-combat situations. Engineers found no mechanical failures, and the pilots themselves were highly trained. The blame fell on "pilot error," but the real culprit was far more insidious: the cockpit itself. It had been meticulously designed to fit the "average pilot," based on measurements taken in 1926. The assumption was simple: a cockpit built for the average man would suit most pilots. Yet, as the crashes mounted, it became terrifyingly clear that this assumption was dangerously wrong.

This perplexing and costly failure is the central puzzle explored in Todd Rose's groundbreaking book, The End of Average: How We Succeed in a World That Values Sameness. Rose argues that our society—from our schools to our workplaces—is built on the flawed premise of the average person, a statistical ghost that fits no one. By dismantling this myth, the book reveals a new way to understand human potential, one rooted in the science of the individual.

The Myth of the Average Person

Key Insight 1

Narrator: The core problem with designing for the average is that the average person does not exist. This was the stunning conclusion of Lieutenant Gilbert Daniels, the researcher tasked with solving the Air Force's cockpit crisis. In 1950, he measured over 4,000 pilots on ten key physical dimensions, such as height, chest circumference, and arm length. He then defined the "average" range as the middle 30 percent for each dimension. When he analyzed the data to see how many pilots fit within the average range on all ten dimensions, the answer was zero. Not a single pilot was average across the board. A cockpit designed for the average pilot was, in fact, designed for no one. The Air Force’s solution was revolutionary: they abandoned the average and demanded adjustable cockpits that could fit the individual. Pilot performance soared, and the crisis ended.

Despite this clear evidence, society remains deeply attached to the ideal of the average. In 1945, a Cleveland newspaper held a contest to find a woman who most closely matched "Norma," a statue created from the averaged measurements of 15,000 women. Out of nearly 4,000 contestants, fewer than 40 matched the average on just five of the nine dimensions. None matched on all nine. Yet, instead of questioning the ideal, the public concluded that American women were simply out of shape. These stories reveal a fundamental truth: our world is built on a flawed ideal, and any system designed around the average person is ultimately doomed to fail.

The Rise of the Standardized World

Key Insight 2

Narrator: The obsession with the average began in the 1840s with a Belgian astronomer named Adolphe Quetelet. He applied statistical methods used to track planets to human populations, creating the concept of l'homme moyen, or the "Average Man." Quetelet didn't see the average as a mere statistical summary; he saw it as perfection. To him, the Average Man was the ideal human, and any deviation was an error or a monstrosity. This idea was profoundly influential, shaping the new social sciences and giving institutions a tool to manage large populations.

A century later, Frederick Winslow Taylor weaponized this concept for the industrial age. Through his theory of "scientific management," Taylor sought to standardize every aspect of work to maximize efficiency. He believed there was "one best way" to perform any task, and it was the manager's job to discover this average method and enforce it. Individuality and initiative were seen as flaws in the system. As Taylor famously declared, "In the past the man was first; in the future the system must be first." This Taylorist thinking didn't stay in the factory. It bled into education, where reformers designed schools to produce standardized citizens for a standardized economy. Students were sorted by age, moved by factory-like bells, and taught a fixed curriculum, all measured against the performance of the average student.

Talent is Always Jagged

Key Insight 3

Narrator: The first principle for dismantling the age of average is the jaggedness principle. It states that complex human qualities, like talent, intelligence, or character, cannot be accurately summarized by a single dimension. Instead, they are "jagged," composed of multiple, often weakly correlated, dimensions. A person can be a brilliant writer but a poor public speaker, or have exceptional long-term memory but struggle with short-term recall.

Corporate giants have learned this lesson the hard way. For years, Google hired based on one-dimensional metrics like GPA and SAT scores, assuming they predicted success. However, an internal analysis found these metrics were worthless as predictors of on-the-job performance. Google now rarely asks for test scores and focuses on a more holistic, multidimensional view of candidates. Similarly, Microsoft's infamous "stack ranking" system, which forced managers to grade employees on a curve, was an unmitigated disaster. It fostered a toxic culture of competition, killed collaboration, and stifled innovation because it reduced complex performance to a single, one-dimensional rank. Recognizing that talent is jagged means we must stop trying to measure people with a single number and instead appreciate their unique profile of strengths and weaknesses.

Behavior Depends on Context, Not Fixed Traits

Key Insight 4

Narrator: The second principle is the context principle, which argues that human behavior is not the result of fixed, internal traits but emerges from the interaction between an individual and a specific situation. We often label people as "introverted" or "honest," assuming these traits are stable parts of their personality. However, research shows this is a myth.

In a landmark study, psychologist Yuichi Shoda observed children at a summer camp and found that their behavior was highly dependent on the situation. A child who was aggressive on the playground might be withdrawn and shy in the classroom. Another might be talkative during meals but quiet during structured activities. Instead of having a single "trait," each child had a unique and stable "if-then" signature: if in a certain situation, then they behave a certain way. This principle also applies to character. Studies on honesty show that a person who cheats on a test at school might be scrupulously honest in a game with friends. Behavior is not about who you are in general, but about the interplay between your unique personality and the context you are in.

There is No Single "Normal" Path to Success

Key Insight 5

Narrator: The final principle is the pathways principle. It states that for any given goal—from learning to walk to building a career—there are many valid and effective pathways to success. The optimal path is not a universal standard but depends on the individual. Our standardized world, however, is built on the idea of a single, "normal" pathway. We expect children to crawl before they walk and students to progress through school at a fixed pace.

Research demolishes this notion. Scientist Karen Adolph studied how infants learn to move and discovered 25 different pathways to crawling. Some babies scooted, some rolled, and some skipped crawling altogether. There was no "normal" sequence. Similarly, educational psychologist Benjamin Bloom found that when students were allowed to learn at their own pace, over 90 percent could achieve mastery, compared to only 20 percent in a traditional, fixed-pace classroom. The idea that "faster is smarter" is a fallacy created by a standardized system. Success is not about following a predetermined ladder; it's about navigating a unique developmental web, where each step opens up new possibilities based on one's own jaggedness and context.

Redefining Opportunity as Equal Fit

Key Insight 6

Narrator: Embracing these principles of individuality requires a fundamental redefinition of opportunity. For decades, we have defined opportunity as "equal access"—giving everyone a chance to compete within the same standardized system. But if the system is designed for a nonexistent average person, it offers no real opportunity at all.

Companies like Costco and Morning Star demonstrate a better way. Costco rejects the retail industry's low-wage, high-turnover model by paying its employees a living wage, providing excellent benefits, and promoting almost exclusively from within. It creates pathways for individual growth, resulting in a fiercely loyal and highly productive workforce. The tomato processor Morning Star operates without managers, empowering employees to define their own roles and responsibilities based on their unique skills and the company's mission. These companies thrive because they create flexible environments that adapt to the individual. This points to a new definition of opportunity: "equal fit." True equality of opportunity is not about giving everyone the same standardized starting line; it's about creating systems in business, education, and society that are flexible enough to value and accommodate the jagged, contextual, and unique pathways of every single person.

Conclusion

Narrator: The single most important takeaway from The End of Average is that our deep-seated belief in the average person is a destructive myth. By designing our institutions around this statistical fiction, we have created systems that stifle talent, suppress individuality, and limit human potential. The world is not standardized, and neither are people. Success and fulfillment come not from measuring up to an artificial average, but from understanding and embracing our own unique individuality.

The book's challenge is profound: it asks us to fundamentally rethink the very structure of our society. It requires moving away from the industrial-age obsession with standardization and toward a new age of individuals. The most pressing question it leaves us with is not just whether we can make this change, but where in our own lives—in our schools, our companies, and our personal goals—is the tyranny of the average holding us back from what we are truly capable of achieving?

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