Narrator: In the early 2000s, Amazon decided to enter the fiercely competitive world of consumer finance. It made a series of small, almost unnoticeable moves. It acquired a tiny company called TextPayMe, invested in another named Bill Me Later, and hired a team from a third, GoPayGo. To an outside observer, it looked like a string of failures. TextPayMe was shut down in 2014. Another venture, Local Register, was also withdrawn. It seemed Amazon simply couldn't crack the code. Yet, beneath the surface of these apparent failures, Amazon was learning. It was building capabilities, gathering data, and understanding the market, all without betting the farm. These small, messy steps laid the groundwork for what would eventually become Amazon Pay, a service that now commands a massive share of the US market. This journey from a series of small, failed experiments to market dominance is the perfect illustration of the central argument in Strategic Mindsets for Uncertain Times by Robert McLean and Charles Conn. The book argues that in an era of unprecedented change, the old rules of strategy—built on certainty and perfection—are not just outdated, they're dangerous.

Narrator: The authors introduce "imperfectionism" as the core mindset for navigating uncertainty. It is not about being sloppy; it is the strategic tolerance for ambiguity and the willingness to move forward through trial and error. In today's volatile world, where the average lifespan of a company on the S&P 500 has plummeted from 61 years to just 18, the cost of waiting for a perfect, risk-free plan is simply too high.

McLean and Conn argue that organizations typically fall into one of two traps when faced with uncertainty. The first is reckless risk-taking. A prime example is Bank of America's 2008 acquisition of Countrywide Financial. In a hasty move to expand its mortgage business during the financial crisis, the bank acquired the subprime lender for $4 billion without fully grasping the immense risks. The decision led to a legal and financial catastrophe, costing Bank of America an estimated $51 billion.

The second trap is risk-aversion paralysis. Blockbuster’s story is a classic cautionary tale. As the dominant force in video rentals, it was perfectly positioned to lead the digital transition. Yet, it clung to its brick-and-mortar model, paralyzed by the uncertainty of the new digital landscape. It famously passed on the opportunity to acquire Netflix and failed to adapt, ultimately filing for bankruptcy in 2010. Imperfectionism offers a third way: making small, thoughtful moves, learning from the inevitable missteps, and iterating toward success, just as Amazon did with its slow, deliberate, and ultimately triumphant entry into consumer finance.

Narrator: To solve problems in uncertain times, one must first be relentlessly curious. The authors point to the story of Edwin Land, the inventor of the Polaroid camera. In 1943, while on vacation, his three-year-old daughter asked a simple question after he took her picture: "Can I see the photograph, Daddy?" That innocent query sparked a revolution. Land, driven by curiosity to close the gap between what was and what could be, spent the next hour walking around Santa Fe, conceiving the entire system for instant photography—the camera, the film, and the chemical process. This kind of curiosity, the book explains, is often stifled in corporate environments that prioritize efficiency over exploration.

This curiosity must be paired with a "Dragonfly Eye" mindset, which means viewing a problem from multiple perspectives simultaneously. A single lens offers a dangerously narrow view. The creation of the Social Impact Bond (SIB) in the UK provides a powerful example. In 2010, the British government was struggling with high prison recidivism, which cost the public £45,000 per prisoner annually. The problem seemed intractable. But a venture capitalist named Sir Ronnie Cohen viewed the social problem through a financial lens. He asked, what if we could tie a financial return to a reduction in reoffending? This led to the Peterborough SIB, where private investors funded rehabilitation programs. If recidivism fell by a target amount, the government would repay the investors with a return. The program was a success, reoffending rates dropped, and investors were repaid. This innovative solution was only possible by looking at a social issue from a completely different angle.

Narrator: The authors argue that in uncertain conditions, old data is often useless. The key is "occurrent behavior"—a mindset focused on relentless experimentation to generate fresh data. It is about moving from abstract analysis to real-world testing. This is the scientific method applied to business strategy.

A compelling story illustrates this principle perfectly. For decades, the Federal Reserve employed hundreds of people to manually count and verify bundles of currency—a tedious, expensive, and surprisingly error-prone process. Two colleagues, Ted Hall and Don Watters, questioned this tradition. Inspired by the precision scales used to weigh gold, they hypothesized that they could weigh cash far more accurately and efficiently than they could count it. They designed a simple experiment. They prepared two pallets of currency. One was counted by hand, the traditional way. The other was weighed against a standard and statistically sampled. The chair of the Federal Reserve, Arthur Burns, came to observe. The results were stunning: the hand-counted pallet was full of errors, while the weighed pallet was perfect. The experiment immediately proved the hypothesis, and the Fed adopted the new method, saving millions in operating costs. This is occurrent behavior in action: forming a hypothesis, designing a low-cost experiment, and using the new data to make a clear, confident decision.

Narrator: When facing deep uncertainty, relying solely on a small group of internal experts can be a fatal flaw. The book champions the power of collective intelligence, arguing that for complex problems, a diverse crowd will almost always outperform a lone genius. The historical quest to solve the "longitude problem" serves as the ultimate case study. In the 18th century, sailors were unable to determine their longitude at sea, leading to catastrophic shipwrecks. The British government, desperate for a solution, established the Longitude Prize in 1714, offering a massive reward.

The board overseeing the prize was a who's who of scientific experts, including Sir Isaac Newton. They were convinced the answer lay in complex astronomical observation. They were biased against a mechanical solution. Yet the problem was ultimately solved not by an astronomer, but by John Harrison, a self-taught clockmaker from the countryside. He dedicated his life to building a series of marine chronometers, rugged and precise clocks that could keep accurate time at sea. His invention, the H-4, was a masterpiece of engineering that the expert board resisted for years. It took the intervention of King George III for Harrison to finally receive his prize. The story proves a crucial point: the most brilliant solutions often come from unexpected places, and tapping into the wisdom of the crowd is a powerful strategy for innovation.

Narrator: Ultimately, every strategic decision is a wager on an uncertain future. The final step is to synthesize all the analysis and experimentation into a clear choice, understanding the stakes involved. The authors use the metaphor from Kenny Rogers' song "The Gambler": "You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em."

The story of Australia's national science agency, CSIRO, and its Wi-Fi patent brings this to life. In the early 2000s, CSIRO discovered it held a core patent for the technology that underpins modern Wi-Fi. Dozens of the world's largest tech companies were using it without paying. CSIRO had a strong hand, but enforcing it would be a massive gamble. They estimated a legal battle would cost at least $10 million, with no guarantee of victory against a coalition of corporate giants. The potential payout, however, was between $100 million and $1 billion. In 2003, they contacted 28 companies, inviting them to license the technology. All 28 refused. CSIRO was at a crossroads. Should they fold and walk away from their claim, or should they hold their cards and go all-in on a high-stakes legal fight? This is the reality of strategy in an uncertain world. It is not about finding the perfect answer but about making the best possible wager with the information you have.

Narrator: The single most important takeaway from Strategic Mindsets for Uncertain Times is that the pursuit of perfection is the enemy of progress. In a world defined by constant disruption, the winning strategy is not to create a flawless master plan but to become a master of imperfectionism. This means embracing curiosity, viewing problems from multiple angles, running constant experiments to learn, tapping into the intelligence of the crowd, and finally, having the courage to make a thoughtful wager.

The book challenges us to abandon the comfort of certainty and step into the messy, ambiguous, but ultimately more rewarding arena of trial and error. The most profound question it leaves us with is this: In our own organizations and lives, where are we letting the fear of being wrong prevent us from discovering what is right?