Joe: Lewis, here’s a wild thought. Eight of the ten largest publicly traded companies in America went into the COVID-19 pandemic without ever once mentioning the word 'pandemic' as a source of risk in their official SEC filings. Lewis: Hold on, eight out of ten? You’re telling me that global disease outbreaks were basically a complete blind spot for 80% of the biggest players on the board? That’s not just an oversight; that’s willful ignorance. Joe: It’s like they were sailing in a known hurricane zone without a weather forecast. And it’s the perfect entry point for the book we're diving into today: Rogue Waves: Future-Proofing Your Business to Survive and Profit from Radical Change by Jonathan Brill. Lewis: Rogue Waves. I like the sound of that. It’s got a dramatic flair. Joe: And Brill is the real deal. This isn't just some academic theory. He was the Global Futurist at HP, he’s advised governments, and Harvard Business Review even called him ‘the world’s leading transformation architect.’ When he talks about seeing the future, he's been in the engine room, not just the crow's nest. Lewis: Okay, a 'transformation architect.' That’s a title. Let's start with this core idea of a 'rogue wave.' What exactly is he talking about? Is it just a fancy term for a crisis or bad luck?

Joe: That's the key question, and the answer is no. A rogue wave isn't just bad luck. For centuries, sailors told stories of monstrous waves, 80 or 100 feet tall, that would appear out of nowhere in otherwise calm seas and swallow ships whole. Scientists and engineers dismissed it as folklore, as maritime myth. Lewis: Right, just exaggerated sea stories told over too much rum. Joe: Exactly. They designed ships based on the predictable, average wave patterns. But then, on New Year's Day 1995, something happened that changed everything. An oil platform in the North Sea, the Draupner platform, was hit by a wave that its laser sensors measured at 85 feet tall. It was more than twice the height of any other wave around it. It was the first time a rogue wave was scientifically proven to exist. Lewis: Whoa. So the folklore was real all along. What was causing them? Joe: That's the beautiful part of the metaphor. It wasn't some single, mysterious force. Scientists figured out that rogue waves are formed by a process called 'constructive interference.' It’s when several smaller, independent, and perfectly normal waves happen to converge at the same time and in the same place. Their energies combine and amplify each other, creating one freakishly large wave. Lewis: I can see where this is going for business. It’s not one single thing that sinks a company. Joe: Precisely. Brill’s argument is that the events that kill companies are just like that. They’re not random bolts from the blue. They are the result of several predictable, often-ignored trends converging in unforeseen ways. Think about the classic Blockbuster versus Netflix story. Lewis: Oh, I love this story. Is that a classic rogue wave? They saw the wave coming but just refused to get on a surfboard, right? Joe: It's even more specific than that. It wasn't one wave. It was a whole set of smaller, predictable waves. Wave one: the rise of the DVD, which was cheaper and easier to mail. Wave two: the steady increase in broadband internet penetration. Wave three: a growing consumer frustration with late fees. Each of these was a known trend. Blockbuster saw them all. They even had their own streaming service. Lewis: But they didn't see how they would all crest at the exact same moment. Joe: They couldn't. Because, as Brill points out, their entire business model was based on flawed premises. They thought their competition was other brick-and-mortar stores. They thought their profit came from new releases and, crucially, late fees. They were so focused on fighting other battleships that they didn't realize the entire ocean was changing beneath them. The convergence of those smaller waves created the Netflix rogue wave that completely swamped their ship. Lewis: That’s a fantastic way to put it. It’s not about predicting the one big thing. It’s about seeing the three or four smaller, obvious things and having the imagination to see how they might collide. But that feels like it requires a crystal ball. How could they have really known? Joe: Brill says you don't need a crystal ball; you need a better map of the ocean. He argues that traditional business strategies, like competitive strategy, are designed for a world of predictable ship-to-ship combat. They’re useless when the sea itself turns against you. He quotes this great line: "When the clouds come, the seas turn black." Blue Ocean Strategy is great, but there's no blue ocean in a hurricane. Lewis: It's like they were so busy polishing their cannons they didn't notice the sea level itself was rising. That’s a powerful idea. So if we’re supposed to be watching the ocean, what should we be looking for?

Joe: Exactly! And that's why Brill argues you can't just watch the other ships. You have to understand the ocean itself. He dedicates a huge part of the book to identifying ten specific 'undercurrents' that are creating today's waves. These are the deep, powerful forces that are reshaping our world. Lewis: Okay, give me a few. What are these big, scary undercurrents? Joe: Some are what you'd expect, but the examples are what make them click. Take 'Changing Demographics.' We all know populations are aging in developed countries. But what does that actually do? He tells this story about talking to a Chinese executive who was relocating a manufacturing plant... to Wisconsin. Lewis: Wait, from China to Wisconsin? That's the opposite of the story we've been told for 30 years. Joe: Right? The executive said part of it was politics, the 'Made in America' label. But the main reason was that Wisconsin had an abundant supply of skilled, experienced labor, which was becoming incredibly hard to find in Shenzhen because of China's aging workforce and demographic shifts. Lewis: That’s incredible. So a massive macro-trend, an aging population in China, has this bizarre, specific consequence, like a factory opening in the American Midwest. It's not abstract at all. Joe: It's profoundly local. Here's another one: 'Automation.' We hear that and think, 'robots are taking our jobs.' But Brill tells a story about being at a university in Beijing and joking about when drones would deliver pizza. His colleague just looked at him, confused, and said that JD.com, a massive e-commerce company, had been using autonomous vehicles to deliver food on campus for over a year. Lewis: And let me guess, it wasn't just to be futuristic and cool. Joe: The main driver wasn't just cost-cutting. It was a severe labor shortage. The demand for workers was so high that they literally couldn't fill jobs like food delivery anymore. Automation wasn't replacing workers; it was filling a gap that already existed. Lewis: So the undercurrent isn't 'technology is coming'; it's 'demographic and economic pressures are pulling technology into existence.' That's a completely different way to look at it. Joe: It changes everything. And these undercurrents are powerful and often invisible. Brill tells this personal story about swimming in a beautiful, calm cove in Thailand. He closed his eyes, floated for a minute, and when he opened them, he was being pulled rapidly out to sea. Lewis: A riptide. Joe: A powerful riptide. An undercurrent that was completely invisible from the surface. He said he was a trained lifeguard, so he knew you can't fight it directly. You have to swim parallel to the shore until you're out of its grip. He uses that as a metaphor: you can't fight these massive undercurrents head-on. You have to understand them and move with them, or they'll pull you under. Lewis: This is fascinating, but also a bit terrifying. If these waves are coming, and these undercurrents are so powerful, what are we supposed to do? Just brace for impact?

Joe: And that's the third and most important part of the book. It’s not a doom-and-gloom forecast; it's a survival guide. He introduces his practical framework, the ROGUE Method. It’s an acronym: R-O-G-U-E. Reality Test, Observe Your System, Generate Possible Futures, Uncouple Your Threats and Opportunities, and Experiment. Lewis: Okay, that’s a lot to unpack. Where do we even start with that? Joe: We start with why it's necessary. And for that, Brill uses the ultimate story of systemic failure: the Titanic. He makes the point that history doesn't remember Captain Smith for his decades of smooth sailing. It remembers him for one night. And the failure wasn't just hitting an iceberg. The failure was the system. Lewis: What do you mean the system? Joe: The culture of 'unsinkability' that led to complacency. The lack of binoculars for the lookouts. The poorly trained crew who didn't know how to launch the lifeboats properly. The fact that the lifeboats were launched half-empty. The failure was the organization's inability to even imagine a scenario where it could fail, so it had no process for it. The ship was designed to survive four compartments flooding, but the iceberg opened up six. The system was brittle. Lewis: They planned for the expected, but the world delivered the unexpected. And their whole system shattered. Joe: Exactly. Now, contrast that with a story he tells about Pixar making Toy Story. This was a rogue wave of its own—the first-ever full-length 3D animated film. The technology was new, the process was unproven. They knew things would go wrong. Lewis: So they didn't pretend they were unsinkable. Joe: Quite the opposite. They assumed they would sink multiple times. Instead of building one rigid, linear production plan, they built a modular system. They created each character with a full range of movements and expressions, almost like a digital puppet. Midway through production, they had a crisis. They watched a rough cut and realized the story was terrible. Woody was a sarcastic jerk. The plot didn't work. Lewis: Oh man, a total restart would have killed the project. Joe: It would have. But because they had a modular system, they didn't have to start from scratch. They could go back, rewrite the story, adjust the characters, and then "reshoot" the scenes with their digital puppets in a fraction of the time. They had, in Brill's terms, 'Uncoupled' their story from their animation assets. They had built a 'Plan B' into the very structure of their work. Lewis: That’s brilliant. So the Titanic crew believed they were invincible and had no process for failure. The Pixar crew assumed they would fail and built a process to handle it. That's the core difference. Joe: That is the absolute core. It’s about moving from a culture of performance, where you're punished for mistakes, to a culture of resilience, where you're rewarded for smart experiments, even the ones that fail. The 'E' in ROGUE stands for Experiment. It’s about building a portfolio of small bets to help you navigate the uncertain future, instead of one giant, unsinkable bet.

Lewis: Wow. So when you put it all together, the book is really a blueprint for a new kind of thinking. It’s not just about business strategy; it’s a mental model for dealing with a complex world. Joe: That's it exactly. It’s about shifting from a 'captain' mindset—believing you can command the sea and steer your giant, perfect ship through anything—to a 'surfer' or 'navigator' mindset. You don't control the waves, but by understanding the undercurrents, you can see the big swells forming. You can choose which waves to ride, which to avoid, and how to position yourself to not get crushed. Lewis: And the book is highly rated for this very reason. People see it as this incredibly actionable framework. It’s not just theory. The takeaway for everyone, not just CEOs, seems to be to constantly ask: what are the small, consistent trends in my own industry, my own career, that everyone else is dismissing as just 'folklore'? Joe: That's the perfect way to frame it. The book gives you the tools to become your own futurist. To run your own 'Reality Test' on the assumptions you hold. To look at the data and see the patterns others are missing. Lewis: It leaves me with a big question, and I think it's the one Brill wants us all to ask. What 'folklore' in your world—the thing people joke about or dismiss as impossible—is actually an 85-foot wave quietly building on the horizon? Joe: A powerful question to end on. And we'd love to hear what our listeners think. What are the undercurrents you're seeing? Share your thoughts with the Aibrary community. We're always curious to see what waves you're spotting. Lewis: It’s a challenge to all of us to stop being passengers and start being navigators. A fantastic and, frankly, essential read for the world we live in now. Joe: Couldn't agree more. Lewis: This is Aibrary, signing off.