Mark: Alright, pop quiz, Michelle. What percentage of people who make New Year's resolutions actually achieve them? Michelle: Oh boy. I’m almost afraid to guess. Based on my own track record with the gym… I’m going to say, what, 20 percent? Maybe 15? Mark: Lower. Much lower. According to research, it's about 8 percent. Michelle: Eight? That's a 92 percent failure rate. Wow, that's grim. So we're all just doomed to fail at changing? That’s a depressing start to a podcast. Mark: It would be, except that’s exactly what we’re tackling today. We're diving into the book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be by Katy Milkman. And it’s all about why that 92% failure rate happens, and how science can help us beat the odds. Michelle: Okay, I’m listening. Is this another book about just having more grit or willpower? Mark: That’s the fascinating part. No. Milkman isn't just a self-help guru; she's a top behavioral economist at The Wharton School and co-directs the Behavior Change for Good Initiative. Her work is serious science. She even applied her research to help with massive public health challenges, like increasing vaccine uptake during the pandemic. Michelle: Whoa, okay. So this isn't just about getting to the gym more. This is high-stakes science about how humans actually operate. Mark: Exactly. And it starts with a surprisingly simple idea. If 92% of us are failing, maybe the problem isn't the goal itself. Maybe it's how we start.

Michelle: That’s an interesting thought. We put so much pressure on the resolution, but not on the starting line. What does she mean by that? Mark: Milkman calls it the "Fresh Start Effect." It's this psychological phenomenon where certain dates act like a reset button for our brains. They create a clean slate, a mental dividing line between the "old you" who failed and the "new you" who has a fighting chance. Michelle: You mean like New Year's Day. The classic "new year, new me" that we all know and… well, mostly fail at. Mark: That’s the most famous example, but her research shows it’s much broader. And she tells this incredible story about a guy named Ray Zahab. In the late 90s, Ray was the opposite of a health icon. He was a heavy smoker—a pack-a-day habit—drank a lot, and lived on fast food. He was completely out of shape and wanted to change, but kept failing. Michelle: Sounds familiar. Mark: Right. But then, as the year 1999 was ending, he had an idea. He decided he would quit smoking on New Year's Eve, 1999. And his reason was powerful. He said, and I'm quoting him here, "I used that date because it had such a huge finality... it was the end of the century, right? This was a reset switch for humanity." Michelle: A reset switch for humanity. That’s a lot more epic than just "I'll start my diet on Monday." Mark: Exactly! That massive sense of a new chapter gave him the push he needed. He smoked his last cigarette just before midnight, and on January 1st, 2000, he woke up and, for the first time, fought off the craving. That one fresh start was the catalyst for a total life transformation. A few years later, this former pack-a-day smoker won one of the world's most extreme endurance races, the 100-mile Yukon Arctic Ultra. Michelle: That’s an amazing story. But the new millennium only happens once. For the rest of us, isn't this just the 'New Year's Resolution' effect that we already know has a 92% failure rate? It feels like a temporary high. Mark: That’s the perfect question, and it’s what makes Milkman’s research so useful. She proves it’s not just about New Year's. The Fresh Start Effect can be triggered by any temporal landmark. Your birthday. The first day of spring. A new job. Even just the start of a new week. Think about how many people say, "I'll start on Monday." That's the effect in action. Michelle: Huh. So it's about creating these mini-chapters in our lives. It makes the change feel more manageable than "I have to be perfect forever." Mark: Precisely. It disrupts our old patterns and gives us a little burst of optimism. She points to the "Back to Sleep" campaign as another example. In the 90s, researchers found that putting babies to sleep on their backs dramatically reduced the risk of SIDS. The campaign targeted new parents—people experiencing the ultimate 'fresh start' of having a child. They were highly motivated and hadn't formed rigid habits yet. The campaign was a massive success and saved thousands of lives. Michelle: Because they were at a natural turning point. They had a blank slate. Mark: A blank slate. That's the perfect way to put it. You leverage these moments when the slate is already clean.

Michelle: Okay, so a fresh start gets you in the door. You’re motivated, you’re optimistic, you’ve started. But what about day two? Day ten? That’s when my brain still wants the cookie now, not the gym results in six months. How do you fight that immediate gratification impulse? Mark: Ah, you've just hit on the next major obstacle: impulsivity, or what economists call "present bias." Our brains are wired to value immediate rewards over future ones. And Milkman's solution is wonderfully simple, borrowed straight from Mary Poppins. Michelle: Please don't say I need a magical nanny. Mark: Close. You need a spoonful of sugar. The idea is, "In every job that must be done, there is an element of fun. You find the fun, and snap! The job's a game." Instead of fighting our desire for fun, we should harness it. Michelle: Find the fun in filing my expense reports. Got it. Sounds easy. Mark: Well, there's a famous experiment that shows how powerful this is. In Stockholm, at a busy metro station, most people would automatically take the escalator next to a big staircase. So, a team of researchers went in overnight and transformed the stairs into a giant, working piano keyboard. Michelle: No way. Like in the movie Big? Mark: Exactly like that. The next morning, commuters are heading to the escalator, and they see people hopping up the stairs, creating music. It was joyful, it was surprising, it was fun. The result? 66 percent more people chose the stairs over the escalator. They didn't become more disciplined overnight; the healthy choice just became the more entertaining one. Michelle: Okay, that's brilliant, but my gym doesn't have a piano. How do I apply that 'spoonful of sugar' to something I truly dread? Mark: This is where Milkman introduces one of her most famous concepts: "Temptation Bundling." It’s a strategy for creating your own piano stairs. You link something you want to do with something you should do. Michelle: Oh, I think I get it! It's like, I can only watch my trashy reality TV show while I'm on the treadmill. You're bundling the temptation with the chore. Mark: You've got it. Milkman herself developed this as a student. She loved reading novels like The Hunger Games but felt guilty because she should have been studying. She also knew she should exercise more. So she made a rule: she was only allowed to listen to her favorite audiobooks while she was at the gym. Suddenly, she was craving trips to the gym because she needed to know what happened next in the story. Michelle: That is so clever. You're not using willpower; you're using your own vices against yourself. But what about things that have no fun element to bundle? Pure, unadulterated procrastination. Like cleaning the garage or, I don't know, writing a masterpiece novel. Mark: For that, we need a different tool. If temptation bundling is the carrot, this next one is the stick. It’s called a "commitment device." And the classic story here is about the writer Victor Hugo. Michelle: The Les Mis guy? Mark: The very same. In 1830, he was facing a crazy deadline from his publisher for The Hunchback of Notre Dame. But Hugo was a world-class procrastinator. He loved socializing and would accept any invitation to avoid writing. So, he came up with a radical plan. He gathered up all of his formal clothes, locked them in a chest, and gave the key to his assistant. Michelle: He locked away his clothes? Mark: He did. He left himself with nothing to wear but a giant, shapeless shawl. By making it physically impossible to go outside without looking ridiculous, he forced himself to stay in his study and write. He handcuffed his future self. And it worked—he finished the book ahead of schedule. Michelle: Come on, that's extreme! Who does that? I'm not locking up my entire wardrobe to finish a work project. Mark: It is extreme, but it illustrates the principle. A commitment device is anything you do to reduce your own future freedom for the sake of a goal. And there are modern, less-dramatic versions. Researchers in the Philippines worked with a place called Green Bank to help people save money. They offered customers a special savings account. Michelle: Let me guess, a locked one? Mark: Exactly. It was a commitment account. You could deposit money, but you couldn't withdraw it until you hit a pre-set date or savings goal. It was completely illiquid. And people who were offered these accounts saved over 80 percent more than those in the control group. They voluntarily gave up freedom to protect their future selves from their present-moment impulses. Michelle: So it’s about creating consequences. You either make the good thing more fun, or you make the bad thing more costly or difficult. Mark: That’s the essence of it. You become the architect of your own choices.

Michelle: So when you put all these ideas together—the Fresh Starts, the Temptation Bundling, the Commitment Devices—it feels like the book's core message is to stop trying to be a superhero. You don't need more willpower. Mark: Exactly. It's about being a clever architect of your own environment. You're not fighting your human nature; you're redirecting it. You use a Fresh Start to open the door, Temptation Bundling to make the path enjoyable, and Commitment Devices to lock the escape hatches. Michelle: And it's not a one-time fix. I know the book has been widely praised, but one of the few criticisms I’ve seen from readers is that some of the advice can feel a bit repetitive. But listening to you, it seems like that might actually be Milkman's central point. Mark: I think you're right. She makes the analogy that changing a deep-seated behavior is more like treating a chronic disease than curing a rash. You don't just take an antibiotic for a week and you're done. You have to keep managing the symptoms. Michelle: That makes so much sense. The obstacle might change. At first, your problem is just getting started. Later, it might be procrastination. Then it might be a lack of confidence after a setback. Mark: And that's why a one-size-fits-all solution fails. The key is diagnosing your specific obstacle in that moment. Are you forgetting? Then you need a cue-based plan. Are you procrastinating? You need a commitment device. Are you just bored? You need to temptation bundle. It's a much more surgical approach than just telling yourself to 'try harder.' Michelle: So for anyone listening, maybe the first step isn't some huge, daunting goal. It's just identifying one small thing you want to change, and then picking your next 'fresh start'—maybe this coming Monday—to begin. Mark: A perfect, small, actionable step. And we'd love to hear what fresh starts you're all planning. Find us on our socials and let us know what you're tackling. It’s always inspiring to see. Michelle: Absolutely. This has been incredibly insightful. Mark: This is Aibrary, signing off.