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Every Nation for Itself

11 min

Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World

Introduction

Narrator: Imagine the scene: December 2009, Copenhagen. World leaders, from Barack Obama to Wen Jiabao, gather for a landmark climate summit. The planet's future hangs in the balance, with the goal of forging a global agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But instead of a historic accord, the summit descends into chaos. Closed-door negotiations break down amid accusations of secret meetings and hypocrisy. The president of the Maldives, a nation literally sinking into the ocean, pleads with delegates not to let his country "go extinct." The summit ends in acrimony and failure, a stark display of conflicting national interests and a complete inability to solve a shared, existential threat.

This spectacular failure wasn't just a diplomatic blunder; it was a symptom of a new and unsettling global reality. In his book Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World, political scientist Ian Bremmer argues that this is the world we now inhabit—a world without a leader. He calls it the G-Zero, a state where no single country or alliance has the power and political will to drive the international agenda, leaving a dangerous vacuum at the heart of global politics.

The G-Zero World: Every Nation for Itself

Key Insight 1

Narrator: The core concept of Bremmer's work is the "G-Zero," a world order where no single country or durable alliance can meet the challenges of global leadership. For seven decades after World War II, the world had a clear structure. First, a G2 bipolar order defined the Cold War, followed by a G7-led era of American dominance. But that era is over. The United States, weighed down by debt and domestic political paralysis, is no longer willing or able to be the world's policeman and economic engine. At the same time, rising powers like China, India, and Brazil are not yet ready or interested in taking on the burdens of global leadership, remaining intensely focused on their own internal development.

Bremmer illustrates this with a powerful anecdote. After giving a speech criticizing the G20 as an unworkable institution, he was approached by its creator, former Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin. Martin defended the G20, but then revealed his primary motivation for championing it: to ensure Canada kept its seat at the top table as the G7's influence faded. Bremmer had a sudden realization. The G20 wasn't a new global order; it was an enormous poker table where nineteen players jealously guard their chips, each waiting to play their own hand. This isn't global governance. As Bremmer concludes, this is "every nation for itself."

The Tangible Dangers of a Leaderless World

Key Insight 2

Narrator: The G-Zero isn't just a theoretical concept; it has dangerous, real-world consequences. Without a global leader to enforce rules, mediate disputes, and coordinate responses, the world becomes more volatile and vulnerable to crises. Bremmer argues that conflicts will now play out in new arenas, from cyberspace to the global food supply.

In 2007, Estonia, one of the world's most digitally integrated societies, was hit by a massive, coordinated cyberattack. Its parliament, banks, ministries, and newspapers were crippled. The attack, widely suspected to have originated in Russia, demonstrated a new form of warfare that can paralyze a nation without firing a single shot. In a G-Zero world, with no international body capable of policing cyberspace, offensive capabilities are rapidly outpacing defenses, leaving critical infrastructure exposed.

Similarly, the fight for resources is intensifying. In 2008, the South Korean company Daewoo Logistics negotiated a deal to lease a massive tract of land in Madagascar—an area half the size of Belgium—to grow corn for export back to Korea. The deal, which offered no clear benefit to the local population in a country facing its own food shortages, sparked such public fury that it helped topple the government. This is a preview of the G-Zero future, where food and water security become instruments of national policy, leading to protectionism, land grabs, and social unrest.

The New Geopolitical Game: Winners and Losers

Key Insight 3

Narrator: In this chaotic, leaderless environment, a new set of winners and losers will emerge. Success is no longer determined by traditional alliances but by adaptability, strategic positioning, and the ability to leverage relationships with multiple powers.

The "winners" are what Bremmer calls "pivot states." These are countries like Brazil, Turkey, and Indonesia, which have strong relationships with the United States, China, and other major players. They are not beholden to any single power, allowing them to pivot between competing interests to maximize their own economic and political advantage. Africa, once a pawn in great power games, is becoming a "pivot continent," skillfully playing China, the U.S., and Europe against one another to secure investment on its own terms.

The "losers" are often "exposed states"—nations that are highly dependent on a single protector, usually the United States, for their security. Countries like Taiwan and Israel face growing uncertainty as America's willingness to intervene abroad wanes. Perhaps the most poignant losers are those vulnerable to global problems that no single nation can solve. In 2009, President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives held a cabinet meeting underwater. He and his ministers, clad in scuba gear, signed a document calling for global carbon cuts. The stunt was a desperate cry for help from a nation that rising sea levels will literally wipe off the map. In a G-Zero world, such cries may go unanswered.

Four Futures: What Comes After the G-Zero?

Key Insight 4

Narrator: Bremmer argues that the G-Zero is inherently unstable and won't last forever. Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does international politics. Eventually, a new order will emerge. The shape of that future depends on two key variables: the nature of the U.S.-China relationship and the relative strength of other global powers. This leads to four potential scenarios.

First is a "G2" world, where the U.S. and China find enough common ground to cooperate on managing the global economy and security. This would require China to accept the role of a "responsible stakeholder," a difficult but not impossible evolution. Second is a "Concert of Nations," where a broader group of powers, perhaps the G20, learns to cooperate effectively on major issues. Third, and more pessimistically, is "Cold War 2.0," where U.S.-China relations sour into a full-blown rivalry, forcing other nations to choose sides and creating deep global division. The final scenario is a "World of Regions," where global institutions wither and power becomes fragmented into regional blocs, each dominated by a local power like Germany in Europe, China in Asia, and Brazil in South America.

America's Path Forward: Rebuilding for a New Era

Key Insight 5

Narrator: The book concludes by focusing on what the United States can do to navigate this new world. Bremmer argues against both isolationism and over-extension. The key to America's future success lies not abroad, but at home. The nation must address its crippling debt, reinvest in education and infrastructure, and fix its polarized political system. A strong, dynamic economy is the ultimate foundation of global influence.

In its foreign policy, America must become more strategic and cost-sensitive. It can no longer afford to be the world's first responder to every crisis. Instead, it should lead selectively, leveraging its unique strengths and sharing the burden with allies. The 2011 intervention in Libya serves as a potential model. The U.S. provided unique capabilities like intelligence and air support, but European and Arab allies took on significant roles, and Libyan forces did the ground fighting. This approach averted a massacre without the immense cost in blood and treasure of the Iraq War. By playing to its strengths and adapting to a world it no longer dominates, America can position itself to be a leader, if not the leader, in whatever order comes next.

Conclusion

Narrator: The single most important takeaway from Every Nation for Itself is that the comfortable, predictable, American-led world order is gone. We have entered a volatile and dangerous transitional period—the G-Zero—where global challenges are growing faster than our collective will to solve them. This is not a permanent state, but an interregnum where every nation must fend for itself.

The book leaves us with a challenging question: In a world where no one is in charge, who is responsible? The G-Zero forces a stark reevaluation of our assumptions about global progress. It suggests that until a new order emerges, security and prosperity will depend less on grand international agreements and more on the resilience, adaptability, and clear-eyed self-interest of individual nations, companies, and citizens navigating a world adrift.

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